The Hormuz Chokepoint: Iraq and UAE Race to Rebuild Oil Logistics Amid Regional Conflict
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The Logistics of a Chokepoint
For decades, the Strait of Hormuz has been the world’s most critical energy artery, a narrow passage through which roughly 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products flowed daily before the current regional escalations. Today, that artery is effectively constricted. For Iraq and the United Arab Emirates, the geographical reality of the Persian Gulf has shifted from a strategic asset to a liability, triggering a frantic rush to build out terrestrial alternatives to maritime transit.
New data from economic intelligence provider QuantCube Technology, which tracks deadweight tonnage leaving regional ports, suggests that Iraq’s exports have virtually evaporated. Unlike its neighbors, Iraq possesses a precarious dependency on the Strait, leaving its economy—which the World Bank notes relied on oil for 53% of its real GDP in 2025—exposed to the volatility of the conflict.
Iraq’s Pivot to the North
The Iraqi cabinet is now attempting to pivot its logistical flow toward the Mediterranean. By accelerating the expansion of the Kurdistan-Turkey pipeline network, Baghdad aims to triple its shipments from 220,000 barrels per day to 770,000. This route, terminating at Turkey’s port of Ceyhan, represents more than just an engineering project; it is a survival mechanism for a state whose maritime exports collapsed from 93 million barrels in the pre-war era to just 10 million barrels in April, according to official government figures.
However, this transition is fraught with geopolitical complexity. Unlike a domestic pipeline, the Kurdistan-Turkey route requires delicate transnational agreements and stability across multiple borders, making it a high-risk gamble in an unstable region.
Abu Dhabi’s Strategic Redundancy
The UAE is operating from a position of greater strength but similar urgency. While Abu Dhabi still maintains the Fujairah terminal, the vulnerability of the Gulf has led Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan to demand the accelerated delivery of the new West-East pipeline. Expected to be fully operational by 2027, the project is designed to double the export capacity of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), effectively creating a bypass that avoids the Hormuz chokepoint entirely.
Despite this, the UAE is not immune to the conflict’s reach. The Fujairah terminal has already faced disruptions from Iranian drone strikes, proving that even “alternative” hubs can be targeted by asymmetric warfare. This creates a precarious situation where the infrastructure intended to provide security is itself becoming a target.
The Infrastructure Gap
The scale of the challenge is highlighted by the sheer volume of missing capacity. While the combined capacity of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and the UAE’s Fujairah routes is estimated by the IEA to be between 3.5 and 5.5 million barrels per day (though Saudi Arabia claims higher figures of 7 mb/d), it remains a fraction of the 20 million barrels that once moved through Hormuz. The gap is not just one of steel and pumps, but of time and capital.
The maritime environment has become a legal and physical minefield. According to Lloyd’s List, ship transits hit their lowest point of the war in May. Tankers now face a dual threat: Iranian interception if they deviate from approved routes, and U.S. sanctions if they coordinate too closely with Tehran. As Iraq and the UAE race to finalize their pipelines, they are betting that the future of energy security lies in the ground, rather than the sea.
